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Crystal25152
Level 66
The Kind-Hearted
Joined: 8/31/2013
Threads: 365
Posts: 8,887
Posted: 11/10/2013 at 10:21 AM
Post #1
It's either somehow the festivals pets ARE showing up, but have gone by wrong names like Harvest Bulbori is just Wild Bulbori, or I'm just having the most worst luck in all of Sylestia, or something is preventing me.
Krinadon
Level 75
Shadow of the Moon
Site Administrator
Joined: 12/17/2012
Threads: 1,242
Posts: 15,408
Posted: 11/10/2013 at 10:33 AM
Post #2
Looking in the logs, you have only fought 300 battles in the Fall Festival zone. The odds would amount to only a handful of Holiday pets.
My only suggestion would be to battle more to increase your chances of finding them. Additionally, my logs don't say whether you fought or ran away. So if you're running away, it'd be even less.
Crystal25152
Level 66
The Kind-Hearted
Joined: 8/31/2013
Threads: 365
Posts: 8,887
Posted: 11/10/2013 at 10:35 AM
Post #3
Only 2 times. But I'll try battling more. *sighs and packs up for searching*
Crystal25152
Level 66
The Kind-Hearted
Joined: 8/31/2013
Threads: 365
Posts: 8,887
Posted: 11/10/2013 at 10:36 AM
Post #4
MY LUCK IS CHANGING!! Woo hoo! I just found fest pet!!
Starfall
Level 60
The Whimsical
Joined: 3/1/2013
Threads: 112
Posts: 4,629
Posted: 11/12/2013 at 5:29 PM
Post #5
Wait, I'm a bit curfuddled xD So if we battle more random pets, we have higher chances of finding FF pets? :3 If so, what's the highest percentage we have of finding FF pets then? o:
Krinadon
Level 75
Shadow of the Moon
Site Administrator
Joined: 12/17/2012
Threads: 1,242
Posts: 15,408
Posted: 11/12/2013 at 5:49 PM
Post #6
Meaning... if I have a 6 sided die, my odds of rolling a 6 on the first roll is 1:6. If I roll 6 times, my odds are now (more or less) 100% of getting a 6.
The chance per encounter does not change. But the more encounters you do, the higher your chance of finding them is. =P
Starfall
Level 60
The Whimsical
Joined: 3/1/2013
Threads: 112
Posts: 4,629
Posted: 11/12/2013 at 5:56 PM
Post #7
Oh man, thanks so much ;u; Welp time to battle all the sylestis xD
Taptothebeat
Level 72
Cutely Creative
Joined: 1/12/2013
Threads: 212
Posts: 3,658
Posted: 11/14/2013 at 8:40 AM
Post #8
Krin, that's not how probability works.
The chance of rolling a 6 at least once out of 6 times is only 66.5%.
Math:
The chance of not rolling a 6 on any given die is 5/6. We have 6 dice so (5/6)^6 is the chance of rolling anything but a 6 on all dice. 1-(5/6)^6 is the probability that we have at least one 6. Which gives us 66.5%.
Though the expected value (the number of times we roll before we expect a 6) is 6 turns. Which makes sense.
Also, do note that if you do not roll a 6 on the first turn, your chances of rolling a 6 on later turns is not increased.
Edited By Taptothebeat on 11/14/2013 at 8:40 AM.
Krinadon
Level 75
Shadow of the Moon
Site Administrator
Joined: 12/17/2012
Threads: 1,242
Posts: 15,408
Posted: 11/14/2013 at 8:42 AM
Post #9
I know, that's why I said more or less lol. I didn't feel like trying to remember how to figure out the actual percentage.
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