Forum Index > General Discussion > Number Crunching (Probability)
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Psalmreader121
Level 60
The Hallowed
Joined: 8/29/2014
Threads: 27
Posts: 881
Posted: 9/21/2014 at 3:24 PM
Post #1
Oh, yes! Time for crunching some numbers! Thanks to information from Krin about how many wheel spins were in the last festival, I can now calculate the likely probability of getting any wheel pet at all.
Now, I only need a little more information from him (aka when the summer fest started and ended) to calculate the number of wheel pets won.
Edit: I have calculated based on pet themes instead and used the book of taggeds to calculate.
You have a less than 1% chance of getting a wheel sylesti at all, much less a 2 or 3 vis
Edited By Psalmreader121 on 9/21/2014 at 3:30 PM.
AaronAmpora
Level 65
The Hallowed
Joined: 12/26/2013
Threads: 148
Posts: 7,378
Posted: 9/21/2014 at 3:36 PM
Post #2
I'm guessing that's assuming all registered users play? Because I know there are a lot of inactive people and just some people who just don't participate in festivals, so that might help the probability...
Or is that just based on number of spins and number of wheel pets?
Psalmreader121
Level 60
The Hallowed
Joined: 8/29/2014
Threads: 27
Posts: 881
Posted: 9/21/2014 at 3:39 PM
Post #3
Just spins and number of pets. Krin told me that at the last fest, there were over 30k wheel spins. There are 299 wheel pets from summer fest 2014 in "circulation". 299/30000=.0099666667, which is about 1%
AaronAmpora
Level 65
The Hallowed
Joined: 12/26/2013
Threads: 148
Posts: 7,378
Posted: 9/21/2014 at 3:43 PM
Post #4
Wow, yeah... Well that sucks and explains why getting a Wheel Pet is so hard...
Cool, thanks for getting this info, it's interesting to know.
Psalmreader121
Level 60
The Hallowed
Joined: 8/29/2014
Threads: 27
Posts: 881
Posted: 9/21/2014 at 3:45 PM
Post #5
Thank Krin for giving me the number of spins xD
And yeah.....that wheel has definitely earned its nicknames....lol
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